I appreciate getting the opportunity to speak to you today about the state of the national economy for the period July - December, 2016 and the prospect until June 2017. I will try to use simple language so that ordinary citizens should be able to understand the basics about trends in the national economy.
Welfare Economics Unapimwaje?
Welfare of the national economy is measured by looking at various indicators. In short, the economic prosperity is measured to check if economic activities are growing or are reduced or if zimedumaa.
Key Activity watched it with food production and various agricultural crops, livestock and fisheries; production of industrial goods and mines; infrastructure construction; investment; price trends, trade and marketing; provision of various services to the community including education, health, water, communications, transport and logistics, tourism and financial services; and the level of implementation of the budget.
In addition, the analysis and assessment of the state of the economy is done by comparing indicators and targets set or to look internationally accepted standards or in comparison with the trend of economic indicators in other countries. Similarly, the health of the economy is measured using general criteria, sectoral and regional.
VARIOUS INDICATORS OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
GDP Growth
Growth (rapid increase or decrease in the production of goods and services in the country) is one of the things vinavyotazamwa in assessing the health of the national economy. Indicator used to measure economic growth is the growth of GDP that is the value of goods and services produced in a country in kinachorejewa period compared to the previous period.
Statistics show that the economic growth of the national economy has continued to grow and Tanzania remains among African countries in sub-Saharan Africa that its economy is growing at a higher speed. The trend of growth in some of the neighboring countries and sectors is shown in Table 1 and 2.
Sheet1: Growth of GDP in Some African Countries
COUNTRY 2015 2016
Burundi -4.0 -0.5
Kenya 5.6 6.0
Rwanda 6.9 6.0
Tanzania 7.0 7.2
Uganda 4.8 4.9
Zambia 3.0 3.0
Malawi 2.9 2.7
Congo DRC 6.9 3.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.4 1.4
Inflation
Another indicator is the overall inflation that measures the price changes of goods and services consumed by households in the country. Inflation fell from 6.5 percent in January 2016 to 5.5 percent in June 2016 and a further decrease to 4.5 percent in September 2016 and then rise slightly in November to 4.8 percent. It means that the prices of goods and services rose at a slower pace compared with the previous period.
This trend of declining inflation was attributed to the slow pace of increase in food prices, the decline in the price of petroleum in the world market, effective implementation of the budget and financial policies, and the stability of the shilling. Rising inflation in November was due to a decrease in the availability of food products (vegetables, corn and wheat) with charcoal.
Inflation in the countries of the East African Community: Average inflation continued to remain at the base of the single digits.
However, in November 2016, almost all countries had an increase in inflation due to the instability of the supply of food in the countries of the East African Community and the rise in oil prices in the world market.
In Uganda, the inflation rate increased to 4.6 percent in November 2016 compared to 4.1 percent in October 2016. In addition, inflation in Kenya was up by 6.68 percent compared with 6.47 percent in the same period.
Prospects for 2017 are to remain with the inflation rate in the single digits. However a decrease of the yield of food crops have emerged in some countries of the region of southern Africa could lead to inflationary pressures in the near future.
Shilling
Tanzania shilling against the US dollar has continued to improve. Shilling has ikibadilishwa to between 2,167 to 2,199 shillings to one US dollar.
This situation was due to be consistent economic policies combined with the good behavior of the balance of foreign exchange earnings, particularly from the sale of manufactured goods, tourism and services.
Trend of the Banking Sector
Assessment of the state of our banks shows that our banks are solid and secure, having sufficient capital and liquidity:
The level of capital invested assets compared to (TOTAL Total capital to risk weighted assets and off-balance sheet Exposures) was 18.68 percent compared to the required legal minimum of 12.0 percent.
State's liquidity is measured by looking at the ratio between assets that can be converted to cash and deposits may be needed in the short term (liquid assets to demand Liabilities). Uwian
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